Japan’s elections reveal a nation in crisis

Scandal-ridden politicians seem incapable of rising to the huge social, economic and geopolitical challenges ahead

Japanese elections have historically been unremarkable and predictable affairs. But this weekend’s snap General Election, called by a government roiled by scandal, was different. It captured a governing class in crisis.

Indeed, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has only been out of power twice since 1955, has just suffered its worst result in 15 years. In the lower house of Japan’s parliament, the combined total of seats for the LDP and its Buddhist junior coalition partner fell from 279 to just just 215, out of a total of 465. The LDP’s feeble opponents, the Constitutional Democratic Party, may have gained ground – it won 50 more seats, taking its tally to 148 – but it remains well short of the 233 seats required for a majority.

The stage is now set for serious wheeling and dealing by the LDP and its leader, Shigeru Ishiba, as they try to form a fresh coalition government with new partners.

In many ways, the political instability reflects a nation in flux. Crime is now on the rise – so much so that one of Japan’s giant rail companies, JR West, is introducing stab-proof umbrellas on its trains, to help passengers and crew deal with a rising number of knife attacks. Japanese firms, from iconic convenience-store chain 7-Eleven to property giant Tokyo Tatemono, are now vulnerable to takeover bids and pressure from overseas investors. Immigration, long subject to strict limits despite Japan’s labour shortage, is now rising quickly. In October 2023, foreign workers numbered more than two million out of a total population of nearly 125million – a rise of 12 per cent from the previous year’s figures.

Politically, the ruling LDP is suffering a crisis of legitimacy. This is partly fuelled by the Japanese public’s growing cynicism towards politicians. Shigeru’s predecessor as prime minister, Fumio Kishida, was mired in a scandal involving the misuse of campaign funds, and many other LDP leaders have faced accusations of corruption.

But the problems run deeper. Japan’s political class faces huge challenges on multiple fronts. For a start, it is struggling to calm the troubled waters of the economy, from managing a large national debt to tackling rising inflation rates. Indeed, thanks to Japan’s economic struggles, the International Monetary Fund has predicted that India will overtake it in terms of GDP next year.

Politicians also face significant geopolitical problems. Above all, Japan’s relationship with China is growing increasingly antagonistic. In recent years, Japan has grown closer to South Korea, largely in opposition to China – although the fact that South Korea’s GDP per head is set to exceed Japan’s for the second year running will rankle Tokyo. Most importantly, Japan has been pledging more support for Taiwan in its efforts to remain independent from China – despite Japan still officially maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity on the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has also been angered by Japan’s peremptory claim to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is a source of further regional instability. For one thing, reports that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia’s frontline will make Tokyo even more nervous about the potential for war on the Korean peninsula. Japanese anxieties won’t have been eased this year by the sight of North Korea testing cruise missiles in the Sea of Japan – the waters that separate Japan from Korea.

Such is the difficult situation in which Japan’s governing class now finds itself. This election marks the decisive end of a more stable political era. Turbulence has come to Japan and its environs. And nothing will be quite the same again.