Forecasting at Sage World 2010

Forecasting the future – Is it possible to forecast the future? If it is, then why is there such contemporary scepticism towards it? Through his Contribution to the Sage World 2010 conference, James Woudhuysen sets out to explore this question – and he provides some clear pointers on what can be known and how to go about thinking about the future.

Forecasting – Introduction:

Shouldn’t recent examples of world renowned prediction failures, such as those around economic growth, bird flu pandemics and the Millennium bug, make us cautious in regard to claims to know what the future will bring? By what criteria should we judge the credibility of new predictions? And are there some basic rules that can guide us towards establishing the ‘truth’ from which more reliable ways to think about the future can develop?

Through his Contribution to the Sage World 2010 conference, James Woudhuysen sets out to answer these questions. Providing numerous examples that challenge today’s doubts around such forecasting, he also identifies some of the areas where our predictions about our future deserve real attention and focus. But he also points to key areas where forecasters should exercise stiff critical questioning, undertake their own research and exercise their own judgement.

Forecasting Part 1:

Introduction – myths about forecasting’s big boo-boos, and the failure to forecast the end of the Cold War

Forecasting Part 2:
Bird flu, obesity, health panics – the need to collect and suspect more forecasts

Forecasting Part 3:

IPCC scenarios and wally metaphors about the future

Forecasting Part 4:
Manufactured homes and deregulated land? Instead, drift happens

Forecasting Part 5:

Mankind can grow the talents to do better R&D