Do you trust the SAGE modelling?

James responds to a discussion on GB News about why modellers tend to provide worst case scenarios around the Covid 19 pandemic

The Afternoon Agenda slot on GB News with Alex Phillips, 21 December 2021, looked at the topic of modelling in general, and why forecasters’ predictions tend to be so pessimistic around the Covid 19 pandemic in particular.

James highlighted the need for forecasters and politicians to include how confident the models capture the likely outcome scenarios. Mitigating factors and counter tendencies need to be properly factored in in forecasting models around the impact of the Omicron variant, whereas the current uncertainty has led to the models being being rather alarmist. The Science is becoming more like scientism through statistical models being used to promote a given political approach looking to change behaviour through fear.