An abortive coup in South Korea

This rash attempt to impose martial law will have global repercussions

South Korea shocked the world yesterday when, at 11pm local time, President Yoon Suk Yeol announced a state of martial law. Military rule was declared across the country, with Yoon promising to ‘crush anti-state forces’, eradicate ‘pro-North Korean forces’ and protect the ‘constitutional order of freedom’.

At around midnight, the army’s chief of staff and martial-law commander, General Park An-su, explained that this supposed protection of ‘freedom’ meant banning any kind of political activity, including South Korea’s national assembly, local government, political parties, strikes and any rally ‘inciting social unrest’. Violators faced searches without a warrant, seizures and arrests. It would have marked the first reimposition of army rule in South Korea since the end of its military dictatorship in 1987.

When helmeted troops tried to enter the National Assembly, parliamentary aides attempted to keep them at bay by wielding fire extinguishers. A military barricade was set up around the parliament building, but politicians were still able to force their way inside. Some even climbed over fences to get in. There they managed to vote against the martial-law motion.

Thanks to the efforts of opposition politicians and some members of Yoon’s own party, in the early hours of Wednesday, the present members of the National Assembly voted to unanimously lift martial law. The police and the army withdrew after some scuffles with angry demonstrators. Even the head of Yoon’s own People’s Power Party described his act as ‘the wrong move’. In less than three hours, South Korea’s ‘coup’ was over.

So what prompted all this? Yoon argued that martial law was necessary for thwarting North Korean sympathisers in the political opposition. As you might expect, Pyongyang has plenty of agents in Seoul and elsewhere, and no doubt some closet sympathisers in political life, too. But there is nothing new about any of that, and certainly no developments pressing enough to justify declaring emergency military rule.

Regardless of any real or imagined North Korean subversion, Yoon clearly feels like he is losing grip on power. His presidency has been marred by controversies and scandals, including a recent influence-peddling scandal involving his wife. He is deeply unpopular with South Koreans, with his approval ratings reaching a record low of 17 per cent last month. Now, in the aftermath of the short-lived martial law, he faces yet another impeachment – the 23rd attempt since he took office in 2022.

South Korea’s increasingly precarious economic situation has exacerbated Yoon’s paranoia. In November, the Korea Enterprises Federation found that nearly half of the companies it surveyed said they would focus on downsizing in 2025, with medium and large firms especially prone to pessimism. These were the worst figures since 2018, and partly reflect worries about president-elect Donald Trump’s shrill calls for tariffs on foreign rivals. One state-backed think-tank estimates that South Korea could lose $45 billion in exports if Trump applies a 20 per cent universal tariff on South Korean imports. That would be terrible news, especially for carmakers, such as Kia and its parent, Hyundai. To make matters worse, overall growth in GDP is projected to fall below two per cent for two consecutive years, which would be for the first time in at least seven decades.

With interest rates high, consumers indebted and thousands of doctors on strike since February, it’s hardly surprising that Yoon felt backed into a corner, although few will have expected this attempted coup.

What’s more, the speed of Yoon’s move was such that it caught the US unawares and caused considerable consternation in Washington, which regards Seoul as a key ally against China. US deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell expressed ‘grave concern’ about the incident. While the US has reiterated that its alliance with South Korea is ‘ironclad’, Yoon’s erratic behaviour will no doubt prompt concerns about the 28,500 US troops currently stationed there. Japan, too, will surely be watching nervously, as an unstable South Korea could spell trouble for their alliance against China.

In contrast, Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow will be rubbing their hands in glee. China has just witnessed a palpable setback for one of America’s key allies in Asia. North Korea will no doubt be emboldened to perform more threatening missile tests. And as for Vladimir Putin, he can rest assured that South Korea – which has so far sent only a $100million aid loan to Ukraine – is now even less likely to more forcefully back Ukraine.

South Korea looks to have had a lucky escape. Democracy is restored. But the consequences of this abortive coup are reverberating far and wide.